Data Breakdown: Week 8 Recap & Spurs-Man United Preview

The following article was originally posted on the Spurs Women blog onDecember 15th 2023. Original post link: http://spurswomen.uk/2023/12/10/data-breakdown-week-8-recap-spurs-man-united-preview/

It’s been a fortnight since Tottenham Hotspur Women were beaten 7-0 by Manchester City Women, their biggest ever defeat in the WSL. In this edition of the Data Breakdown, I analyze Spurs’ approach in the game and highlight some of the reasons for such a heavy defeat. I then preview this week’s WSL game against Manchester United. As a heads-up, this piece is going to be heavier on the tactical side, than the data side.

Review: Manchester City vs Tottenham

Both teams fielded expected tactical shapes, City playing a 433 & Spurs a 4231. Although there was one important change that Robert Vilahamn made in his usual starting 11. Asmita Ale came in, to start her first WSL game of the season at right back & Angharad James moved up to the central midfield spot. I highlighted the ability of City’s wingers in 1v1 situations, to be the key to the game, in my preview. At the time the line-ups were released, Ale’s addition at RB seemed positive.

Despite playing away and the obvious threat of City’s wingers, Spurs stuck to their guns of pressing high up the pitch. We saw them play their usual 442 block without the ball, where the front two of Thomas & Clinton were happy to let City’s centre-backs have the ball when they were facing their attacking side. They were tasked with keeping the central City players always covered and not allow direct balls to them.

On the other hand, City also continued to build up in their familiar shape. During controlled possessions in the middle third, one of the fullbacks would tuck in to form a back three and the other inverted to join the midfield line. Below is a screenshot of one of the instances. You can see Spurs trying to squeeze the middle of the pitch and not allow the City CBs space to pass through the middle. The approach worked well enough until about the 20th minute of the game. Spurs were able to create a couple of turnovers from errant passes from the City backline. But there were also instances where the composure and passing ability of City’s players allowed them to make little rotations and play first time bumped passes through the middle. Khadija Shaw also helped City’s progression from time to time, because when she dropped deeper (as shown in the image below), she was rarely followed by Spurs’ centre-backs.

Tottenham’s pressing vs Manchester City’s buildup structure

In my opinion, Spurs’ approach to and execution of their high press on City worked fine, and was not critically responsible for the seven goals Spurs ended up conceding.

Below is the situation just before the first City goal. City were able to progress the ball to the final third of the pitch. Spurs’ wide players and the near sided CM were well positioned to cover the runs of City’s wide players. But Hasegawa drifted from her central position to the left channel, which created a 4v3 situation in that area. City were then able to make interplays and get the left-back, Ouahabi, in space to cross. Her cross was thumped-in by Shaw, who leaped above both of Spurs’ centre-backs to head the ball home.

Situation just before City’s 1st goal

For the second goal, once again City’s player rotations proved too difficult to deal with for Spurs. This time it didn’t need City over-loading Spurs. Jill Roord made a smart blind-side run in the space between the right back and the center back, with Summanen caught ball watching. Roord, with space and time once again picked out Shaw, who once again headed it in.

Situation just before City’s 2nd goal

City quickly added a third goal, giving Shaw a first half hattrick. This time it was from a direct play into Shaw, where she showed her strength to shield herself from her marker and score with her feet for a change. The game was pretty much done by half time, with City leading 3-0. But early in the second half, Shaw again displayed her strength. This time, making a powerful run with the ball, into the box, from a throw-in situation. Her cross got deflected and eventually found Hemp, who curled-in City’s fourth of the game.

The rest of City’s goals were directly a result of their wide 1v1 ability. Ale was caught in possession for the fifth, then Hemp beat her in a 1v1 for the sixth and finally Zadorsky, who came on as a left back, was dribbled past for the seventh. Spurs went into the game knowing about the threat from the dribbling ability of City players, but when it came to it they just could not keep up with them.

Deciding to press a quality opposition away from home is usually done for two reasons. You feel that you can pinch the ball high up the pitch and create chances from there. Or you want to delay the opposition’s attacks and prevent them from essentially camping out in or near your box. In the first half, Spurs were able to do a little of the former, but more of the latter. The three City goals had very little to do with Spurs deciding to commit numbers to the press. None of those goals were created by City being able to play through Tottenham and create a transition situation. Rather all were from settled play in the final third, where Spurs’ defenders proved unable to handle the opposition’s quality.

Preview: Tottenham vs Manchester United

Next up we play hosts to the red side from Manchester. Unlike City’s complex build-up patterns, United under Marc Skinner have got a relatively straightforward approach. The fullbacks remain wide and the deepest midfielder, Katie Zelem, acts as the pivot for their build-ups.

Manchester United’s pressing vs Manchester City’s pressing structure

Above is a screenshot of how United built up from the back in a recent home defeat against City. City, playing away from home, opted to push three players in their first line of press. The wingers positioned themselves in between the CBs and the closest full back, often trying to occupy that passing lane. Meanwhile, Shaw, in the middle always tried to keep Zelem in her cover shadow.

Whenever the ball was played backwards or when United defenders received the ball with their backs to the goal, it triggered City forwards to start pressing and to try to suffocate United. One such instance led to City’s second goal of the game. Shaw left marking Zelem to try press the back pass to Mary Earps. Her press was very well complemented by Hasegawa, who was quick to push up and not allow Zelem any space to turn.

Manchester City’s press just before their 2nd goal, vs Manchester United (Part I)

Manchester City’s press just before their 2nd goal, vs Manchester United (Part II)

Unlike City, who have genuine box to box midfielders and prefer to press in a 433, Vilahamn has so far opted to go for a 424/442 system off the ball. It will, however, be interesting to see if he makes any changes to the system, given that the confidence of the team will have been damaged by shipping seven away goals, but also there may be both missing and returning players.

If he persists with the same system, it will be fascinating to see how the Spurs midfield cope with being matched 1v1 against United’s attacking midfielders, one of which will be the majestic, Ella Toone. United like to leave space between their build-up line and the midfield line, which they want their midfielders and forwards drop into, so that they could receive the ball on turn and carry it up the pitch. Spurs would want to press United in such a way that they restrict that space between the two lines as much as possible, while also trying to win back possession from the duels in those areas.

Some points to keep in mind:

United have scored the most set-piece goals (5) in the WSL, this season, compare to the 2 from Spurs.

Ex-Spurs striker, Rachel Williams is their joint top scorers in the WSL, with 4 goals, despite having started all the games on the bench.

Spurs may be without Eveliina Summanen, who was injured against Manchester City and Grace Clinton, on loan from Manchester United in a deal that perhaps prohibits her playing against them. Both have started every WSL game for Spurs, so their absences (alongside those of Drew Spence and Olga Ahtinen) may force additional changes to the midfield. On the more positive side for Spurs, it looks like the team’s captain and irrepressible scorer, Beth England, will be back in the squad, although perhaps more likely to start on the bench.

Geyse, who was bought as the replacement for Alessia Russo, will be a key player to watch. She would bring a different challenge for the Spurs back line, compared to the physicality and strength of Bunny Shaw. Geyse, albeit not as physical as Shaw, can still shrug her marker and make powerful runs with the ball. She likes to drop deeper and carry the ball up the pitch, very much like a winger playing centrally.

Thank you for reading.

You can make a comment using the form below or can contact Harsh on twitter at @simplywink.

Scouting Dušan Vlahović

At the time of writing Harry Kane’s situation at Tottenham Hotspur is still not clear, he may get his move to Manchester City or he may well be forced to stay with his boyhood club. For the sake of this article we are just going to assume that come the 1st of September, the England captain won’t be wearing the Lilywhite jersey.

ACF Fiorentina’s Serbian striker, Dušan Vlahović, has been linked quite heavily to be the Harry Kane replacement. As per Tottenham’s star reporter, Alasdair Gold, the Director of Football at Spurs, Fabio Paratici wants to sign Vlahović irrespective of Kane’s sale. Fiorentina’s number 9 has had a meteoric rise in his market value off the back of the last season and is reportedly valued over €65 million.

Vlahović is reportedly Fabio Paratici’s #1 target (Let’s ignore Lautaro Martínez for now)

Before writing this article my knowledge on Dušan Vlahović was limited to just Youtube compilations on him, based on which he looked like a tall, fast, left footed striker with decent footwork. To know more about him and his overall game play I decided to watch 2 of Fiorentina’s games from last season, both against Atalanta (so that I could also watch that new Argentine Center Back that Spurs have signed).

The article is broken down into 4 parts, you can skip to the last couple of blocks if you are just interested in knowing my opinion on him.

  • Analysis on Game 1 against Atalanta
  • Analysis of Game 2 against Atalanta
  • Statistical analysis
  • My overall thoughts on Vlahović

Game 1:

Atalanta 3-0 Fiorentina (13th December ’20)

On paper Fiorentina started off as a 4231, but that transformed into a 541 while defending. Pol Lirola dropped back into the wing back position to from a back 5, which I think was Prandelli’s tactic to counter Atalanta’s wing backs.

(L) Starting Lineups, (R) Fiorentina’s 541 block

Hold-up play :

  • Fiorentina allowed their hosts have plenty of the ball, with Atalanta’s possession in the first 45 minutes being close to 66%. The visitor’s deep 541 block meant that Vlahović was left isolated up front, even 1v3 at times. The new Spurs CB, Cristian Romero took full advantage of that numerical superiority, he had the licence to be as aggressive as he could, thus not allowing Vlahović any space or time on the ball. Him being isolated, combined with some good front foot defending by Seria A’s defensive MVP, lead to Vlahović loosing the possession of the ball 13 times (8 Turnovers, 5 Dispossessed), the highest of any player on the pitch, Zapata (5) being the second highest.
Dusan Vlahovic’s Pass, Carry & Touch map
Cristian Romero’s Defensive action map

Shooting opportunities :

  • Till the time the Serbian was on the pitch (71′), the club from Florence only managed to take 3 shots, while the club from Bergamo took 18 & scored 3 goals. Vlahović’s effort was their only shot from open play and the closest that they got to goal during that time. The move started with him receiving the ball deep in the right hand channel and laying it back to Pol Lirola, who then did really well to carry the ball up field & pick him out with a chipped ball. Vlahović then does even better to get a shot off from that tight space, receiving on his left foot, then maneuvering the ball to his right, a step over to bring it back to the left and then finally taking a curling shot which was tipped onto the post by the new Tottenham keeper Pierluigi Gollini.
  • Vlahović’s second attempt and Fiorentina’s third came in the 66th minute, when he just headed over a fizzed free kick from the right hand side area.
Vlahovic’s first shot: from 1:00 to 1:30 & second shot: from 3:10 to 3:17

Marker on defensive corners :

  • Dušan Vlahović is 6’3 (1.90m), just about an inch taller than the England captain, Harry Kane. Much like Kane, he is also used as the near post marker while defending corners. This facet of Harry’s game was highlighted even more so under Mourinho, when he was defending corners more than he was attacking them. Dušan has the height as well as the experience to cover that.

Game 2:

Fiorentina 2-3 Atalanta (11th April ’21)

The second game between the two teams saw a lot of changes compared to Game 1, Fiorentina playing under a new manager, Giuseppa Lachini, perhaps being the biggest change. Unlike the last game, when Vlahović was the lone man leading the line, Lachini deployed a 2 man front line, with the 23 year old Ivorian, Christian Kouame partnering the Serbian. Gian Piero Gasperini tweaked his system as well, as Atalanta played with a back 4.

(L) Fiorentina’s 352 , (R) Atalanta’s back 4

On the ball :

  • Unlike Game 1, where Vlahović was left 1v3 for majority of the match, he had his striker partner, Kouame, in his close proximity throughout the game. The Serbian started the game out on the right hand side, but after a few minutes shifted to the left side, basically being 1v1 against Romero from then on. Similar to the last game, Cristian Romero didn’t allow Vlahovic much time on the ball, but this changed after the 23rd minute.
  • 23rd minute – Vlahović, picked up a loose ball midway inside Atalanta’s half, and like his usual self started to push and run with it, but in came a flying Cristian Romero, taking much of Dušan Vlahović and some of the ball along with him. The referee issued Romero a yellow for what looked to me a legitimate but a rash challenge.
  • Post yellow card – The Argentine center back started becoming cautious of not getting another booking, thus Vlahović started getting a little more time on the ball. The Serbian took full advantage of that when he was found with a channel ball on the left hand side. He took a couple of touches to take the ball closer to the touchline, lured Romero close to him and then easily dribbled past him. The sequence ended with him skying a shot off his right foot, after making his way into the penalty area.
  • The give away – Vlahović received the ball in the similar area where he was earlier fouled by Romero, this time he dribbled past one Atalanta player, but was then shrugged off by Romero who closely tracked his run inside. Romero then carried the ball well into Fiorentina’s half, after which it took Atalanta only 3 passes to double their lead in the game.
Dusan Vlahovic’s Pass, Carry & Touch Map from Open-play
  • Second Half – With Atalanta leading the game 2-0, Gasperini took an already carded Romero, off at half time. Vlahović also switched the side he was operating on and started taking a lot more touches in the right hand side channel, compared to the first half when he had more touches on the left. Him shifting towards the side of Atalanta’s other Argentine Center Back, José Luis Palomino, lead to him getting more time on the ball. There were a couple of instances when he was able to pin back Palomino when receiving the ball from throw-ins or receiving on feet. On another instance he was able to distance himself from his counter part and cut inside to play a reverse through ball onto the path of Kouame, which resulted into a weak shot. Largely, the lesser aggressive nature of Palomino, compared to Romero, helped Vlahović impact the game more in the second half, which eventually lead him bagging a couple of goals as well.

Shooting opportunities :

  • Off Crosses – 3 of Vlahović’s 5 shots came directly or indirectly from crosses. He was the direct target for 1 of them, while for the other 2, once the initial cross went past him, he smartly dropped back into space, anticipating the knockdown at the back post. Fiorentina and Dušan’s first goal came in a similar fashion.
  • Channels balls – As also mentioned earlier, one of his shots came when he received the ball on the left channel, made his way into the box after dribbling past Romero & took a wayward shot off his right foot from an acute angle. He had a number of instances when he chased down the balls played into the channels & tried to then cut inside into the central zones.
Vlahovic’s first goal: from 1:37 to 2:05 & second goal: from 2:19 to 2:50

A Look at the Stats:

Shooting pattern :

  • Last season in the Seria A, Vlahović scored 21 goals, which included 11 from Open Play, 6 penalties, 3 from corners and 1 from Set-piece.
  • He very much likes to keep his shots restricted inside the penalty box. In his 3 seasons in the Italian league, he has taken only 31 shots from outside the penalty area, i.e. roughly 19% of his total shots. For context, Harry Kane has taken roughly 36% of his total Premier League shots from outside the box.
Dusan Vlahovic’s Shot Map from Open-play, Seria A season 20-21
  • The Serbian very much prefers his stronger left foot while shooting. All of his open play goals came off his left foot. The only right footed goal that he scored last season was from a corner sequence.
  • A random (maybe even nonsensical) point, for a left footed player, he seems to shoot very less from the right half of the penalty area. Generally, left footers try to curl their shots into the left corner, from those areas. I guess it’s the case of him not getting those kind of situations, rather than his inability, as one of his goals last season, was him curling the ball into the corner from outside the box.

Receiving and passing tendency :

To get a fair idea of where he receives the ball and the types of passes he plays, I aggregated data from 5 Seria A games from last season, where he had the most touches and attempted the most number of passes respectively.

(L) Touches while receiving passes from his own half , (R) Progressive Pass Map
  • Avid Channel runner : In the 2 games that I watched, it was clear to see that his instinct was to drop into the channels and either go deep to receive it short to his feet, or make runs in behind for channel balls. The touch map of him receiving passes from his own half hints at the same, as he has got touches in both the channels, deep as well as up high.
  • Passing : As you will see in the bar chart below, he is not much of a ball progressor via passes. Based on the 5 game sample of matches where he attempted most number of passes, majority of his forward passes seem to be him spreading the play out-wide. This was reflected in the build-up to his first goal against Atalanta, received the ball near the right side channel, carried it inside and then spread the ball out-wide, which lead to the cross, which eventually lead to his goal.

Miscellaneous :

  • Hold up play : Albeit not a direct indicator, the Miscontrol and the Dispossessed metric do hint that his hold up play is still pretty much a work in progress. The skill of holding up the ball often gets better with experience, him being 6’3 will no doubt help him get better at that. His height also makes him an obvious option for goal kicks and out balls, as well as a target for crosses. For context, Harry Kane’s 1.78 miscontrols per 90 puts him at 87th percentile and 2.07 dispossessions per 90 put him at 44th percentile, while Vlahović is at 38 and 10th percentile respectively.
Data from fbref
  • Prefers carrying over passing : In the current stage of his development, he very much prefers using his pace and dribbling ability to take the ball up the pitch. In the 2 games I watched, him dropping into the channels and carrying the ball with pace was a common theme.

Conclusion:

For a 21 year old to walk into the Premier League and hit the ground running is a job tough enough, for the same 21 year old to replace Harry Kane would be a job even tougher. If signed, Vlahović has certainly got a unique skill set to offer to Tottenham Hotspur, powerful running (with and without the ball) up-front being one of them. On paper, his attributes should help Spurs cover Kane’s use as a target man, what he won’t be able to cover is Kane’s long range passing and distribution. His ability to run in behind and in the channels is something that he offers different compared to Kane and at 21 he’s definitely got the legs to be a pressing menace up front.

One common play across all the Tottenham pre-season games has been the up-back and through played in the central area, where the forward drops deep to receive the early ball played directly into them, the Serbian’s physicality provides a good utility for this type of play. So far we have seen Son Heung-min take up that role up top, post receiving he mainly looks for quick & short interchanges with the nearby attackers. Vlahović’s strengths although, seems to lie more in turning and running with the ball. How Nuno Espírito Santo modifies that pattern of play after Vlahović’s arrival will be interesting to look at.

All in all, in my opinion Dušan Vlahović’s traits do suit the Premier League and would help him take his game to the next level, but the 21 year old’s shoulders shouldn’t be burdened with the complete load of being the Harry Kane replacement, at Spurs.

Thanks for reading. Please do share your thoughts in the comments section or on Twitter.